2022 NHL Playoff Predictions: Quarterfinals

I watch a lot of hockey, at least a game a night, sometimes two. And through all of this, I come to the end of every season with absolutely zero clarity about who’s going to Win It All, let alone having a level of certainty about who’s going to win the first-round matchups. I think that’s what I like so much about sports and the way that I’ve grown to perceive them and enjoy them. There’s a level of chance at play from game to game that steals away the definitive binary nature of Skill and Talent and instead throws in a million tiny vectors in which a team that is plainly outmatched can overcome a goliath, sometimes through luck, sometimes through attrition, sometimes simply through the lack of focus on the other side’s part.

Here we are again, Spring 2022, with 16 teams and I have a bracket in front of me, one that I have filled out and I have zero sense of conviction about my picks, mostly just an apparitional intuition about what I believe will happen, projected far enough. Here are my picks for the first round which I implore you not to take too seriously and above all, not to use these towards any gambling or meaningful wagers.

Would love to hear your picks as well.

Reach out if you’ve got the way.

The West

While the teams in the other conference have more points, I don’t believe the teams are particularly better, and I don’t believe that the matchups themselves are more intriguing. There’s a powerhouse that has done nothing with its regular season dominance, a legend in the making who has yet to make a meaningful impact in the team’s history, and what stands in my mind as the most interesting match in the whole first round.

Colorado Avalanche v. Nashville Predators
Prediction: Avalanche in 4

I think Colorado will meet some adversity in this postseason, but I don’t believe it will be against this Nashville team. The Predators have grit and some unbelievable players, carried on the back of a brilliant season from Roman Josi to be sure, but I think MacKinnon is too filled with a blind ambition to let his team allow any ground to be taken from him this early on. I think Nashville will keep one of these games dramatically close, but I have game 4 as a blowout for the Avs.

Minnesota Wild v. St. Louis Blues
Prediction: Wild in 7

This is the one matchup I believe will shed the most blood and give us the most to speak about when the dust clears. The Wild are dealing with a ton of cap issues after some big buyouts and are desperate in a way that few teams are. They play big, huge, and when I think of them I think of this huge freight train that simply cannot be stopped through mechanics. That being said, the Blues were just there at the summit only a couple of years ago and they know what it means to go up against an entire league of odds that say they will not accomplish anything, and Ryan O’Reilly is a player who has the voice and the style to will a team through adversity like this. If Binnington can get his head right, he has just enough crazy to make this team get by. I still see the Wild in 7, 6 if there’s a fluky goal or a shitty call, but I think the Blues will make them drain every bit of desperation from their bones by the end of it.

Calgary Flames v. Dallas Stars
Prediction: Flames In 5

I don’t really feel much about this match-up. I’ve followed the Flames since the Kiprusoff years and have liked a lot of what they accomplished and the team they’ve built (hate that they let Sam Bennett go) and I think Sutter’s coaching style has turned the team’s opportunities into their strengths. The Stars are a team that always feels like more of an obstacle than a contender, depiste having just taken a trip to the Stanley Cup in 2020. There was a magic there that was impressive, especially under their “backup” goalie. I really like Jamie Benn and his boy Tyler Seguin but while I wouldn’t say they’re on the decline, I feel like they might be a bit removed from the powerhouse tandem they were at their peak. I think Sutter’s command and history in these playoffs will strategize his Flames through the Stars without much issue.

Edmonton Oilers v. Los Angeles Kings
Prediction: Oilers in 5

The Los Angeles Kings are my favorite team (you’ll see me mention another favorite in the East, but the Kings are the team I decided to love, the other is the one that I grew up loving, a different and more distinct version of favorite). I would love to say that their youth and the core of their team will be enough to spring them over a team that has a history of coming up short. But to be fair, this is not the 2012 or 2014 bruisers who were able to dismantle and shove their way to the front of the line, to simply will their way ahead. This is a young team dealing with a rash of injuries and a major disparity in the age of their leaders and the next wave of what will make them great. I’m very happy to see them make the playoffs in a year when I thought it was going to just be a year of experience for the youth and make it in next year. But without Doughty, it feels a little lost. I think the Kings win one for retiring former captain Dustin Brown at home, but I believe McDavid and Draisaitl and the rest got exactly the matchup they wanted and despite what I believe will be the beginning of Mike Smith’s unraveling, the Kings won’t have enough to exploit it.

The East

This is the conference I spend way more time watching and I feel a bit more invested in each of these teams. Contrary to most sports fans, I don’t usually root against my rivals, instead really finding ways to love the teams who the clubs I follow play the most. When I hear the opposition, the fans of teams who “don’t like” my teams sound their displeasure, as much as I don’t like it I know for sure I would never want to sound like them, especially in the name of competition and entertainment. That being said, I’m probably the most invested in these teams and these matchups, which only means my uncertainty for the games is that much higher.

Florida Panthers v. Washington Capitals
Prediction: Panthers in 4

As much as the Caps are the rivals to the two teams we watch most in my household, I still go down their whole roster and am blown away by how great they are. Kuz, Backstrom, Carlson, Oshie, Wilson, I’m a big fan of Lars Eller, and of course the freakish Ovi. But I think their run as that unit is done, and they have only been aging and getting a bit more stagnant since their Cup. I didn’t even expect them in the playoffs this year (but the Isles shit the bed). Florida is still very much an enigma to me and I don’t know them as well as I’ve liked, but the most entertaining games I’ve watched all year have been Panthers games. I love their acquisition of Bennett from the Flames last year and going down their roster, as much as Barkov and Hubie are the stars, I love guys like Reinhart, Acciari and Duclair, plus their pick up of Giroux puts them over the top.

Toronto Maple Leafs v. Tampa Bay Lightning
Prediction: Lightning in 6

Auston Matthews had such a sick year, putting goals into the net seemingly at will, alongside his buddy Mitch Marner who seems to catch a lot of heat when he’s not producing. This seems to be how the Leafs entire squad pans out as aside from Montreal, all NHL eyes seem to be on Toronto at all times. I just don’t think they have the goaltender thing figured out in a way that matches the consistency of Tampa Bay’s ceaseless assault and nearly untouchable depth. I see Jack Campbell holding his own for a couple of games and Matthews continuing to produce, but I can’t see the Leafs and their situation in net being stable enough to overthrow the champs who are an absolute menace in the league from every standpoint.

Carolina Hurricanes v. Boston Bruins
Prediction: Hurricanes in 5

While they have cooled off a bit, the Hurricanes were an utter force to be reckoned with all year. They’re fast, well organized and coached by a man who puts complete trust in his skill players. Their leadership on ice is seasoned and the players in their prime are lights out. The Bruins were in a similar situation years ago, but now seem to be a bit aged out and trying to find ways to squeeze the final juice from a roster that served its time well for a very long time, but can see the sun setting. I like the Bruins goalie tandem and Haula’s late-season production has been phenomenal, but Carolina has been so consistent all year. I think the Canes move on.

New York Rangers v. Pittsburgh Penguins
Prediction: Rangers in 5

This is the worst!! No, but seriously, this is a difficult one for me. The New York Rangers are the team of my youth, the team my father roots for, the team that I happily have followed my entire life. I cried for the Matteau goal, my first tears of pure joy I can remember. I felt an unbelievable and new feeling of joy and pride and excitement when they won that 1994 cup. Mike Richter was the first player I fell in love with, Adam Graves was the first professional sports number I saw retired in person, Henrik Lundqvist was the first professional player I waited hours in line to meet, shake hands with and get his autograph. But also in my household, my wife has discovered hockey not through years of me watching in our living room, but through the briefest of spotlights on Sidney Crosby supporting sled hockey, and has watched every Penguins game on television since postseason 2018 (she was in the room with me when Sid and co. skated the ice with the Stanley Cup the year before and couldn’t be bothered to look up and watch! I feel so bad that she just missed the chance to watch her team in their prime lifting the trophy). Anyway, the series is a contentious one in our house, mostly because I have found myself falling in love with some of the Pens as well. I think Sid is going to try to will his team to who they used to be a half decade ago, I think Kris Letang will continue his career year. But I think Malkin’s fading star will show and he won’t be able to keep up with his legacy. I think Bryan Rust (who I think will be looking to depart the Steel City) and Jake Guentzel will be stretched a little thin as E-Rod, Kapanen and Big Jeff Carter have trouble being the support they were brought along for. I do believe we will see Teddy Blueger rise to a new level against the Blueshirts though, and this will be the big climax of the year that he becomes a household name. But man, these Rangers! Kreider having a lifetime season, Panarin with an extremely low key 96 points, Adam Fox coming off the Norris year and maintaining his stellar trajectory, and Shesterkin with a shoe-in for the Vezina, this is a team with special things in mind. Gallant has galvanized this team with the core players that have been there and pickups like Copp and Vatrano have paid off in spades. The Pens have looked soft and flat since the trade deadline and now with Tristan Jarry (who admittedly did have a fantastic regular season) out with a foot injury, I think we’re gonna see the Rangers have a fairly easy time if the momentum of both of these teams stays their individual courses.